Model
GSSM — runs scored/surrendered model. OLS of the actual home run margin on four home/away team averages, converted to a win probability and calibrated on the model's own out-of-sample history. Multiple models share this machine, differing only in what feeds the four averages:
- runs — actual runs for/against (the baseline).
- xwoba — Statcast expected offense (team xwOBA) instead of actual runs.
E[home margin] = b₀ + b₁·GFH(home) + b₂·GAH(home) + b₃·GFA(away) + b₄·GAA(away)
P(home win) = P( N(E[margin], SE) > 0 ), SE = √(SSE / (n−2))
Each model refits nightly on all final games of the season (minimum 60). Predictions are stored pre-game and scored out-of-sample as results arrive.
Fit history
| Fitted (UTC) | Model | Games | b₀ | GFH | GAH | GFA | GAA | SE | In-sample acc | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 13:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-28 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 | xwoba | 2397 | -0.251 | 2.040 | -10.111 | 4.642 | 3.903 | 4.565 | 52.6% | 0.249 |