Slate 2026-07-31 + next 2 days
Today 2026-07-31 15 games
Cardinals @ Blue Jays
2026-07-31
Model line: Blue Jays +0.60
(expected margin -0.60)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays (H) | 49.9% | +100 | -197 dr | -24.7% | -1.5 +109 | 33.4% | -30.2% |
| Cardinals | 50.1% | -100 | +161 dr |
+30.7%
4.8%K
|
+1.5 -132 | 66.6% | +17.1% |
Blue Jays: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cardinals: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cardinals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Brewers @ Angels
2026-07-31
Model line: Angels +1.31
(expected margin -1.31)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels (H) | 47.6% | +110 | +139 dr |
+13.8%
2.5%K
|
+1.5 -114 | 58.4% | +9.6% |
| Brewers | 52.4% | -110 | -168 dr | -16.4% | -1.5 -105 | 41.6% | -18.7% |
＋ Log a bet
Diamondbacks @ Guardians
2026-07-31
Model line: Guardians +0.56
(expected margin -0.56)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians (H) | 50.1% | -100 | -150 dr | -16.6% | -1.5 +142 | 33.5% | -18.9% |
| Diamondbacks | 49.9% | +100 | +124 dr |
+11.9%
2.4%K
|
+1.5 -172 | 66.5% | +5.1% |
Diamondbacks: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
＋ Log a bet
Twins @ Mariners
2026-07-31
Model line: Mariners -0.86
(expected margin +0.86)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners (H) | 54.6% | -120 | -167 dr | -12.7% | -1.5 +128 | 38.3% | -12.7% |
| Twins | 45.4% | +120 | +138 dr |
+8.0%
1.4%K
|
+1.5 -155 | 61.7% | +1.6% |
Mariners: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Twins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Pirates @ Reds
2026-07-31
Model line: Reds +0.67
(expected margin -0.67)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds (H) | 49.7% | +101 | +115 dr |
+6.9%
1.5%K
|
+1.5 -145 | 60.6% | +2.4% |
| Pirates | 50.3% | -101 | -139 dr | -13.5% | -1.5 +121 | 39.4% | -12.9% |
Reds: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Pirates: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Pirates: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Royals @ Rockies
2026-07-31
Model line: Rockies -0.91
(expected margin +0.91)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies (H) | 54.8% | -121 | -108 dr |
+5.5%
1.5%K
|
+1.5 -162 | 65.8% | +6.5% |
| Royals | 45.2% | +121 | -111 dr | -14.1% | -1.5 +134 | 34.2% | -20.0% |
Royals: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Royals: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Royals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Yankees @ Cubs
2026-07-31
Model line: Cubs -0.80
(expected margin +0.80)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs (H) | 54.5% | -120 | -105 dr |
+6.3%
1.7%K
|
+1.5 -230 | 65.5% | -6.0% |
| Yankees | 45.5% | +120 | -124 dr | -17.7% | -1.5 +172 | 34.5% | -6.1% |
Cubs: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Cubs: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Cubs: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Yankees: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Red Sox @ Dodgers
2026-07-31
Model line: Dodgers +0.50
(expected margin -0.50)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (H) | 50.2% | -101 | -136 dr | -12.8% | -1.5 +159 | 33.7% | -12.7% |
| Red Sox | 49.8% | +101 | +113 dr |
+6.0%
1.3%K
|
+1.5 -194 | 66.3% | +0.5% |
Dodgers: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Dodgers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
White Sox @ Rays
2026-07-31
Model line: Rays -2.01
(expected margin +2.01)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (H) | 58.3% | -140 | -131 dr |
+2.8%
0.9%K
|
-1.5 +150 | 42.3% | +5.8% |
| White Sox | 41.7% | +140 | +109 dr | -12.9% | +1.5 -182 | 57.7% | -10.6% |
Rays: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Rays: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Rays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
White Sox: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Phillies @ Orioles
2026-07-31
Model line: Orioles -1.65
(expected margin +1.65)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles (H) | 57.2% | -134 | -119 dr |
+5.2%
1.6%K
|
+1.5 -198 | 68.2% | +2.6% |
| Phillies | 42.8% | +134 | -102 dr | -15.2% | -1.5 +162 | 31.8% | -16.6% |
＋ Log a bet
Giants @ Padres
2026-07-31
Model line: Padres -0.48
(expected margin +0.48)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (H) | 53.4% | -115 | -150 dr | -11.0% | -1.5 +141 | 37.0% | -10.9% |
| Giants | 46.6% | +115 | +124 dr |
+4.4%
0.9%K
|
+1.5 -171 | 63.0% | -0.1% |
Padres: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Padres: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Giants: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Nationals @ Braves
2026-07-31
Model line: Braves +1.04
(expected margin -1.04)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (H) | 48.5% | +106 | -118 dr | -10.4% | +1.5 -188 | 59.3% | -9.1% |
| Nationals | 51.5% | -106 | -102 dr |
+2.0%
0.5%K
|
-1.5 +154 | 40.7% | +3.4% |
Braves: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Braves: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Rangers @ Astros
2026-07-31
Model line: Astros -0.04
(expected margin +0.04)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (H) | 52.0% | -108 | -138 dr | -10.3% | -1.5 +153 | 35.5% | -10.2% |
| Rangers | 48.0% | +108 | +115 dr |
+3.2%
0.7%K
|
+1.5 -186 | 64.5% | -0.8% |
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Tigers @ Athletics
2026-07-31
Model line: Athletics +3.44
(expected margin -3.44)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics (H) | 40.8% | +145 | +119 dr | -10.6% | +1.5 -126 | 50.8% | -8.9% |
| Tigers | 59.2% | -145 | -143 dr |
+0.6%
0.2%K
|
-1.5 +104 | 49.2% | +0.3% |
Athletics: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Tigers: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
＋ Log a bet
Marlins @ Mets
2026-07-31
Model line: Mets -0.07
(expected margin +0.07)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets (H) | 52.1% | -109 | -122 dr | -5.2% | -1.5 +163 | 35.6% | -6.4% |
| Marlins | 47.9% | +109 | +102 dr | -3.2% | +1.5 -199 | 64.4% | -3.2% |
Mets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Tomorrow 2026-08-01 15 games
Cardinals @ Blue Jays
2026-08-01
Model line: Blue Jays +1.94
(expected margin -1.94)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays (H) | 45.6% | +119 | -147 dr | -23.4% | -1.5 +164 | 29.2% | -23.0% |
| Cardinals | 54.4% | -119 | +122 dr |
+20.8%
4.3%K
|
+1.5 -173 | 70.8% | +11.8% |
Blue Jays: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cardinals: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cardinals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Nationals @ Braves
2026-08-01
Model line: Braves -1.04
(expected margin +1.04)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (H) | 55.2% | -123 | -193 dr | -16.2% | -1.5 +116 | 38.9% | -16.0% |
| Nationals | 44.8% | +123 | +158 dr |
+15.6%
2.5%K
|
+1.5 -119 | 61.1% | +12.5% |
Braves: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Braves: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Red Sox @ Dodgers
2026-08-01
Model line: Dodgers -0.64
(expected margin +0.64)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (H) | 53.9% | -117 | -176 dr | -15.4% | -1.5 +142 | 37.5% | -9.2% |
| Red Sox | 46.1% | +117 | +145 dr |
+12.9%
2.2%K
|
+1.5 -142 | 62.5% | +6.5% |
Dodgers: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Dodgers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Phillies @ Orioles
2026-08-01
Model line: Orioles +0.04
(expected margin -0.04)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles (H) | 51.7% | -107 | +117 dr |
+12.2%
2.6%K
|
+1.5 -138 | 62.7% | +8.1% |
| Phillies | 48.3% | +107 | -141 dr | -17.5% | -1.5 +125 | 37.3% | -16.1% |
＋ Log a bet
Twins @ Mariners
2026-08-01
Model line: Mariners -2.89
(expected margin +2.89)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners (H) | 61.1% | -157 | -178 dr | -4.6% | -1.5 +136 | 45.5% | +7.4% |
| Twins | 38.9% | +157 | +147 dr | -3.9% | +1.5 -148 | 54.5% | -8.7% |
Mariners: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Twins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Yankees @ Cubs
2026-08-01
Model line: Cubs +1.34
(expected margin -1.34)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs (H) | 47.5% | +110 | +104 dr | -3.1% | +1.5 -170 | 58.3% | -7.5% |
| Yankees | 52.5% | -110 | -125 dr | -5.5% | -1.5 +155 | 41.7% | +6.4% |
Cubs: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Cubs: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Cubs: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Yankees: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Tigers @ Athletics
2026-08-01
Model line: Athletics +1.02
(expected margin -1.02)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics (H) | 48.6% | +106 | +118 dr |
+5.9%
1.2%K
|
+1.5 -127 | 59.4% | +6.1% |
| Tigers | 51.4% | -106 | -142 dr | -12.3% | -1.5 +115 | 40.6% | -12.7% |
Athletics: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Tigers: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
＋ Log a bet
Diamondbacks @ Guardians
2026-08-01
Model line: Guardians -1.43
(expected margin +1.43)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians (H) | 56.5% | -130 | -168 dr | -9.9% | -1.5 +136 | 40.3% | -5.0% |
| Diamondbacks | 43.5% | +130 | +139 dr |
+4.0%
0.7%K
|
+1.5 -146 | 59.7% | +0.7% |
Diamondbacks: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
＋ Log a bet
White Sox @ Rays
2026-08-01
Model line: Rays -2.01
(expected margin +2.01)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (H) | 58.3% | -140 | -179 dr | -9.1% | -1.5 +132 | 42.3% | -1.9% |
| White Sox | 41.7% | +140 | +147 dr |
+3.0%
0.5%K
|
+1.5 -141 | 57.7% | -1.4% |
Rays: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Rays: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Rays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
White Sox: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Brewers @ Angels
2026-08-01
Model line: Angels +0.50
(expected margin -0.50)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels (H) | 50.2% | -101 | +104 dr |
+2.5%
0.6%K
|
+1.5 -159 | 61.1% | -0.4% |
| Brewers | 49.8% | +101 | -126 dr | -10.7% | -1.5 +135 | 38.9% | -8.7% |
＋ Log a bet
Royals @ Rockies
2026-08-01
Model line: Rockies +0.64
(expected margin -0.64)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies (H) | 49.8% | +101 | -126 dr | -10.7% | +1.5 -176 | 60.7% | -4.8% |
| Royals | 50.2% | -101 | +104 dr |
+2.4%
0.6%K
|
-1.5 +150 | 39.3% | -1.7% |
Royals: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Royals: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Royals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Rangers @ Astros
2026-08-01
Model line: Astros +1.76
(expected margin -1.76)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (H) | 46.2% | +117 | +108 dr | -4.0% | +1.5 -150 | 56.8% | -5.3% |
| Rangers | 53.8% | -117 | -131 dr | -5.1% | -1.5 +135 | 43.2% | +1.5% |
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Pirates @ Reds
2026-08-01
Model line: Reds +0.80
(expected margin -0.80)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds (H) | 49.3% | +103 | +104 dr |
+0.5%
0.1%K
|
+1.5 -165 | 60.1% | -3.4% |
| Pirates | 50.7% | -103 | -126 dr | -9.0% | -1.5 +140 | 39.9% | -4.3% |
Reds: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Pirates: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Pirates: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Marlins @ Mets
2026-08-01
Model line: Mets -0.61
(expected margin +0.61)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets (H) | 53.8% | -117 | -131 dr | -5.1% | -1.5 +160 | 37.4% | -2.7% |
| Marlins | 46.2% | +117 | +109 dr | -3.5% | +1.5 -171 | 62.6% | -0.8% |
Mets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
＋ Log a bet
Giants @ Padres
2026-08-01
Model line: Padres +0.19
(expected margin -0.19)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (H) | 51.3% | -105 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giants | 48.7% | +105 | — | — | — | — | — |
Padres: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Padres: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Giants: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Sunday 2026-08-02 15 games
Phillies @ Orioles
2026-08-02
Model line: Orioles +0.47
(expected margin -0.47)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles (H) | 50.4% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phillies | 49.6% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Nationals @ Braves
2026-08-02
Model line: Braves +0.49
(expected margin -0.49)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (H) | 50.3% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nationals | 49.7% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Braves: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Braves: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Cardinals @ Blue Jays
2026-08-02
Model line: Blue Jays +2.69
(expected margin -2.69)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays (H) | 43.2% | +132 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cardinals | 56.8% | -132 | — | — | — | — | — |
Blue Jays: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cardinals: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cardinals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Diamondbacks @ Guardians
2026-08-02
Model line: Guardians -0.64
(expected margin +0.64)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians (H) | 53.9% | -117 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diamondbacks | 46.1% | +117 | — | — | — | — | — |
Diamondbacks: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Pirates @ Reds
2026-08-02
Model line: Reds -0.51
(expected margin +0.51)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds (H) | 53.5% | -115 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pirates | 46.5% | +115 | — | — | — | — | — |
Reds: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Pirates: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Pirates: Back-to-back — played yesterday
White Sox @ Rays
2026-08-02
Model line: Rays -0.78
(expected margin +0.78)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (H) | 54.4% | -119 | — | — | — | — | — |
| White Sox | 45.6% | +119 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rays: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Rays: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Rays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
White Sox: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins @ Mets
2026-08-02
Model line: Mets -0.04
(expected margin +0.04)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets (H) | 52.0% | -108 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlins | 48.0% | +108 | — | — | — | — | — |
Mets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Rangers @ Astros
2026-08-02
Model line: Astros -0.11
(expected margin +0.11)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (H) | 52.2% | -109 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rangers | 47.8% | +109 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Yankees @ Cubs
2026-08-02
Model line: Cubs +1.60
(expected margin -1.60)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs (H) | 46.7% | +114 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yankees | 53.3% | -114 | — | — | — | — | — |
Cubs: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Cubs: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Cubs: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Yankees: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Royals @ Rockies
2026-08-02
Model line: Rockies +0.10
(expected margin -0.10)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies (H) | 51.6% | -106 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Royals | 48.4% | +106 | — | — | — | — | — |
Royals: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Royals: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Royals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Brewers @ Angels
2026-08-02
Model line: Angels +1.31
(expected margin -1.31)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels (H) | 47.6% | +110 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brewers | 52.4% | -110 | — | — | — | — | — |
Tigers @ Athletics
2026-08-02
Model line: Athletics +1.40
(expected margin -1.40)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics (H) | 47.3% | +111 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tigers | 52.7% | -111 | — | — | — | — | — |
Athletics: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Tigers: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Giants @ Padres
2026-08-02
Model line: Padres -0.36
(expected margin +0.36)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (H) | 53.0% | -113 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giants | 47.0% | +113 | — | — | — | — | — |
Padres: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Padres: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Giants: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Twins @ Mariners
2026-08-02
Model line: Mariners -0.62
(expected margin +0.62)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners (H) | 53.9% | -117 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Twins | 46.1% | +117 | — | — | — | — | — |
Mariners: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Twins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox @ Dodgers
2026-08-02
Model line: Dodgers +2.52
(expected margin -2.52)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (H) | 43.7% | +129 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Red Sox | 56.3% | -129 | — | — | — | — | — |
Dodgers: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Dodgers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox: Back-to-back — played yesterday
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