runs xwoba
Nov 4
Tonight's slate · 0 games

0 edges over the market

Best EV +0.0% —
Kelly exposure 0.0u across 0 bets · $0.00
Model runs 2397 g · SE 4.46
Calibration
lower Brier = sharper
0.249 Brier
Accuracy 54.5%
Log loss 0.693
Scored 2,274
Run-margin error
mean abs. error
3.60 runs MAE
Model SE 4.46
Fit games 2,397
Market coverage
share of slate priced
0% priced
Games 0
With prices 0
Value board
model win % vs book price · 0.25 Kelly
Edges — bet side Σ EV +0.0%
Fades — model disagrees Σ EV +0.0%
Model vs home-team baseline +1.7pp over 2274 games
54.5% 52.8%
model home team ±2 SE Detail →
Calibration check
predicted home win % vs actual · 2274 scored Accuracy →
0.00–0.40 +24.7pp
0.40–0.45 -13.5pp
0.45–0.50 -0.7pp
0.50–0.55 +0.7pp
0.55–0.60 +0.9pp
0.60–0.65 +1.4pp
0.65–1.00 -28.4pp
Trend flags
last 10 games
Tonight's docket
fanduel prices · green cell = the side the model would bet · dots = trend flags · ＋ logs any side
starters show season ERA / WHIP — context only, not model inputs; greyed = under 20 IP
TimeMatchupModel lineAway · win / ML Home · win / MLRun line Bet · EVLog

21+ and physically present where wagering is legal. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Model estimates, not advice.